This article provides an accessible introduction to the phenomenon of monotone likelihood
in duration modeling of political events. Monotone likelihood arises when covariate values …

International relations (IR) scholars often focus on time. How long do wars last? How long
does peace between rivals endure? How long do leaders stay in power when facing …

The underlying risk factors associated with the duration and termination of biological,
sociological, economic, or political processes often exhibit spatial clustering. However …

In this dissertation I investigate different decisions concerning nuclear weapons. I do this by
focusing on what I call traumatic events: high-impact external shocks that affect a state's …

Bayes' theorem is a relatively simple equation but one of the most important mathematical
principles discovered. It is a formalization of a basic cognitive process: updating …

Survival data often include an “immune” or cured fraction of units that will never experience
an event and conversely, an “at risk” fraction that can fail or die. It is also plausible that …

Abstract Scholars of International Relations have invested substantial effort to conceptualize
the organizational features of rebel groups in civil conflicts to understand how these features …

Over half of all civil conflicts over the past 75 years have involved multiple separate
insurgent groups fighting against the government at the same time. Contemporary examples …

Summary Social Scientists and Biostatisticians often employ conventional parametric
survival or mixture cure models (eg, Weibull, Exponential) to analyze outcome variables in …