This paper proposes a novel framework for modeling electricity loads; it can be used for both
forecasting and analysis. The framework combines the EnKF (ensemble Kalman filter) …

This paper presents an analysis of how alternative models of the business cycle can
replicate the stylized fact that large governments are associated with less volatile …

In discussing and thinking about the conduct of monetary policy, many central bankers focus
on core inflation--that is, a measure of inflation that excludes the rate of increase of prices for …

Time series estimates of inflation persistence incur an upward bias if shifts in the inflation
target of the central bank remain unaccounted for. Using a structural time series approach …

The relationship between inflation and the output gap can be modelled simply and
effectively by including an unobserved random walk component in the model. The dynamic …

This paper documents the suite of models (SoMs) used by Norges Bank to estimate the
output gap. The models are estimated using data on GDP, unemployment, inflation, wages …

Okun's law, a significant parameter in empirical research and policy analysis, faces
considerable heterogeneity. This stems from its dual interpretation in the literature, with one …

The subject of this book is the estimation of random vectors given observations of a related
random process assuming that there is a linear relation between them. Since the class of …

It is standard to model the output–inflation trade‐off as a linear relationship with a time‐
invariant slope. We assess empirical evidence for two sets of theories that allow for …

The reliability of output gap estimates is a crucial factor for the successful implementation of
economic policy. We evaluate the robustness and stability of output gap estimates while …