Uncertainty before and during COVID‐19: A survey

E Castelnuovo - Journal of Economic Surveys, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
This survey features three parts. The first one reviews the most recent literature on the
relationship between domestic (ie, country‐specific) uncertainty and the business cycle, and …

Uncertainty and business cycles: exogenous impulse or endogenous response?

SC Ludvigson, S Ma, S Ng - American Economic Journal …, 2021 - aeaweb.org
Uncertainty about the future rises in recessions. But is uncertainty a source of business
cycles or an endogenous response to them, and does the type of uncertainty matter? We …

The global effects of Covid-19-induced uncertainty

G Caggiano, E Castelnuovo, R Kima - Economics Letters, 2020 - Elsevier
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Time-varying effects of global economic policy uncertainty shocks on crude oil price volatility: New evidence

Y Lyu, S Tuo, Y Wei, M Yang - Resources Policy, 2021 - Elsevier
This paper is the first to investigate the time-varying effects of global economic policy
uncertainty (GEPU) shocks on the volatility of two international pricing benchmarks for crude …

FRED-QD: A quarterly database for macroeconomic research

M McCracken, S Ng - 2020 - nber.org
In this paper we present and describe a large quarterly frequency, macroeconomic
database. The data provided are closely modeled to that used in Stock and Watson (2012a) …

Economic policy uncertainty spillovers in booms and busts

G Caggiano, E Castelnuovo… - Oxford Bulletin of …, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
We estimate a nonlinear VAR to quantify the impact of US economic policy uncertainty
shocks on the Canadian unemployment rate in booms and busts. We find strong evidence in …

Volatility forecasting of Chinese energy market: Which uncertainty have better performance?

J Zhang, Y Xiang, Y Zou, S Guo - International Review of Financial Analysis, 2024 - Elsevier
This paper examines the effects of seven uncertainty indices on Chinese energy price
volatility and analyses the influencing factors using the extended GARCH-MIDAS model …

Financial uncertainty and real activity: The good, the bad, and the ugly

G Caggiano, E Castelnuovo, S Delrio… - European Economic …, 2021 - Elsevier
This paper quantifies the finance uncertainty multiplier (ie, the magnifying effect of the real
impact of uncertainty shocks due to credit frictions) by relying on two historical events related …

Global financial uncertainty

G Caggiano, E Castelnuovo - Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
We estimate a novel measure of global financial uncertainty (GFU) with a dynamic factor
framework that jointly models global, regional, and country‐specific factors. We quantify the …

Measuring economic and economic policy uncertainty and their macroeconomic effects: the case of Spain

C Ghirelli, M Gil, JJ Pérez, A Urtasun - Empirical Economics, 2021 - Springer
We provide additional evidence on the relationship between uncertainty and economic
activity. For this purpose, we gather and construct a wide range of proxy indicators of …