This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in
human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie …

A major hypothesis about conditionals is the Equation in which the probability of a
conditional equals the corresponding conditional probability: p (if A then C)= p (C| A) …

Conditionals are sentences of the form'If A, then B', and they play a central role in scientific,
logical, and everyday reasoning. They have been in the philosophical limelight for centuries …

More than a decade of research has found strong evidence for P (if A, then C)= P (C| A)(“the
Equation”). We argue, however, that this hypothesis provides an overly simplified picture …

This paper explores trivalent truth conditions for indicative conditionals, examining the
“defective” truth table proposed by de Finetti (1936) and Reichenbach (1935, 1944). On their …

Intuition suggests that for a conditional to be evaluated as true, there must be some kind of
connection between its component clauses. In this paper, we formulate and test a new …

There has been a paradigm shift in the psychology of deductive reasoning. Many
researchers no longer think it is appropriate to ask people to assume premises and decide …

The Bayesian approach to the psychology of reasoning generalizes binary logic, extending
the binary concept of consistency to that of coherence, and allowing the study of deductive …

Conditionals and conditional reasoning are everywhere in ordinary and scientific discourse.
Ordinary people, politicians, civil engineers, and scientific consultants all have an interest in …

We analyze selected iterated conditionals in the framework of conditional random quantities.
We point out that it is instructive to examine Lewis's triviality result, which shows the …