We exploit the degree of discretion embedded in the World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability
Framework (DSF) to understand the decision-making process of international financial …

This article analyses the effect of changes in international financial markets on the debt
dynamics in sub‐Saharan Africa in recent years. A key development is the rise of the private …

In this paper I assess the ability of econometric and machine learning techniques to predict
fiscal crises out of sample. I show that the econometric approaches used in many policy …

Since the early 2000s, debt sustainability is assessed by the World Bank and the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) through a policy template called Debt Sustainability …

Sarlin (2013) suggests that if a loss function approach is chosen to derive the optimal
threshold for financial crisis early warning indicators, the loss function specification should …

This paper estimates the determinants of external debt distress in low-income countries
(LICs), disentangling the roles of institutions, shocks, and policies. The most prominent …

The taxonomy of external financing options available to emerging market economies (EMEs)
has changed markedly over the last decade. This chapter examines the drivers of this global …

When allocating their aid budget, development agencies need to decide whether to give
outright grants or use concessional loans that blend a grant and credit element. Theory …

Au cours des trente dernières années, une quarantaine de pays à faible revenu ont
bénéficié d'une série de réductions de dette culminant en 2005 avec l'annulation de la dette …

Les analyses et conclusions de ce document sont formulées sous la responsabilité de son
auteur. Elles ne reflètent pas nécessairement le point de vue de l'AFD ou de ses institutions …