Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The
uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and …

The article introduces the concept of forecast efficiency, in which the forecast contains all
information available at the time of the forecast. Empirical tests investigate weak efficiency …

This paper argues for a careful (re) consideration of the expectations formation process and
a more systematic inclusion of real-time expectations through survey data in macroeconomic …

Using micro data from Duke University quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers, we show
that corporate investment plans as well as actual investment are well explained by CFOs' …

This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic
forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael …

We define" consensus" as the degree of agreement among point predictions aimed at the
same target by different individuals and" uncertainty" as the diffuseness of the corresponding …

This paper tests the rationality of individual price forecasts in a panel of professional
forecasters. Here, unlike in most previous studies, rationality is not rejected. The results here …

This survey outlines the evolution of thought leading to the rrecent delopments in the study
of business cycles. The subject is almost coextensive with short-term macrodynamics and …

This paper focuses on survey expectations and discusses their uses for testing and
modelling of expectations. Alternative models of expectations formation are reviewed and …

Forecasts guide decisions in all areas of economics and finance and their value can only be
understood in relation to, and in the context of, such decisions. We discuss the central role of …