Domestic politics and international relations are often somehow entangled, but our theories
have not yet sorted out the puzzling tangle. It is fruitless to debate whether domestic politics …

▪ Abstract The Rochester school of political science, led by William H Riker, pioneered the
new method of positive political theory. Positive political theory, or rational choice theory …

“Negotiation analysis” seeks to develop prescriptive theory and useful advice for negotiators
and third parties. It generally emphasizes the parties' underlying interests (as distinct from …

Military planners and other decision makers require advanced early warning of impending
crises so they can devise effective mitigation plans, mobilize resources, and coordinate …

Analyses of international policy cooperation are often marked by analytic and empirical
confusion. First, by largely treating cooperation as a binary phenomenon (typically, as …

A política doméstica e as relações internacionais com freqüência são inextricavelmente
vinculadas; todavia, as teorias existentes (particularmente as estatocêntricas) não levam …

Prediction and forecasting have now fully reached peace and conflict research. We define
forecasting as predictions about unrealized outcomes given model estimates from realized …

On its face, intellectually powerful theory should be useful to policy makers. Indeed, it is
more counterintuitive that better theory would not be useful to policy makers than the …

I examine how certain domestic political conditions affect if and when interstate rivalries end.
I argue that rivalries are more likely to end (1) when regime changes occur,(2) when a rivalry …

Conflict early warning is supposed to identify and trigger actions to reduce the onset,
duration, intensity, and effects of multiple forms of political violence. While the commitment of …