Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The
uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and …

We evaluate explanations for the absence of disinflation during the Great Recession and
find popular explanations to be insufficient. We propose a new explanation for this puzzle …

It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the
forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities …

We evaluate alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market
fundamentals in terms of their usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum …

Using monthly data between 1970 and 2013, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the
extent of co-movement (measured by correlation coefficients) among the nominal price …

We explore the hypothesis that fluctuations in commodity prices are an important driver of
business cycles in small emerging market economies (EMEs). First, we document that …

The metal prices play an important role in many aspects of economics. Copper, a widely
used metal in the industry, has received an extensive attention recently. Due to the high …

This study aims to examine the forecasting ability of five global economic activity proxies for
WTI crude oil price volatility and construct a new index to improve the accuracy of WTI crude …

We explore the time-varying effects of financial and geopolitical uncertainties on commodity
markets using a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression with stochastic …

This paper examines the time-scale impacts of global supply chain pressure on commodity
markets under extreme market conditions from January 2000 to July 2022. The paper uses a …