Is forecasting ability a stable trait? While domain knowledge and reasoning abilities are
necessary for making accurate forecasts, research shows that knowing how accurate …

Crowd prediction systems, such as prediction markets, provide the infrastructure to elicit and
combine the predictions from a group (“crowd”) of forecasters. In contrast to data-driven …

How can we identify accurate forecasters? Current gold standard approaches draw from two
sources of information: simple cognitive assessments of reasoning ability and past …

Forecasts, or subjective probability assessments of uncertain events, are characterized by
two qualities: coherence, the degree to which the judgments are internally consistent, and …

Forecasting tournaments are misaligned with the goal of producing actionable forecasts of
existential risk, an extreme-stakes domain with slow accuracy feedback and elusive proxies …

Forecasting tournaments are a well established method for assessing human forecasting
skills. Most forecasting tournaments are based on a format where participants estimate the …

A crucial bottleneck in medical artificial intelligence (AI) is high-quality labeled medical
datasets. In this paper, we test a large variety of wisdom of the crowd algorithms to label …

Judgmental forecasting research on superforecasters has demonstrated that individuals
differ in their foresight. However, the concept underlying this work focuses on accuracy and …

How do the ratings of critics and amateurs compare and how should they be combined?
Previous research has produced mixed results about the first question, while the second …

This chapter reviews the “wisdom of crowds” through the lens of social psychology. Early
research on social influence cast a pessimistic light on whether collectives can be wise. The …