Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or
quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is …

Perception of health risk can affect medical decisions and health behavior change. Yet the
concept of risk is a difficult one for the public to grasp. Whether perceptions of risk affect …

" More information is always better, and full information is best. More computation is always
better, and optimization is best." More-is-better ideals such as these have long shaped our …

To predict choice behavior, the standard practice of economists has been to infer decision
processes from data on observed choices. When decision makers act with partial …

Many doctors, patients, journalists, and politicians alike do not understand what health
statistics mean or draw wrong conclusions without noticing. Collective statistical illiteracy …

This book provides a language and a set of tools for finding bounds on the predictions that
social and behavioral scientists can logically make from nonexperimental and experimental …

We present a theory of decision by sampling (DbS) in which, in contrast with traditional
models, there are no underlying psychoeconomic scales. Instead, we assume that an …

This book is a full-scale exposition of Charles Manski's new methodology for analyzing
empirical questions in the social sciences. He recommends that researchers first ask what …

Economists commonly suppose that persons have probabilistic expectations for uncertain
events, yet empirical research measuring expectations was long rare. The inhibition against …

Widely deployed large language models (LLMs) can produce convincing yet incorrect
outputs, potentially misleading users who may rely on them as if they were correct. To …