Prediction and projection of heatwaves

DIV Domeisen, EAB Eltahir, EM Fischer… - Nature Reviews Earth & …, 2023 - nature.com
Heatwaves constitute a major threat to human health and ecosystems. Projected increases
in heatwave frequency and severity thus lead to the need for prediction to enhance …

Keeping pace with marine heatwaves

NJ Holbrook, A Sen Gupta, ECJ Oliver… - Nature Reviews Earth & …, 2020 - nature.com
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are prolonged extreme oceanic warm water events. They can
have devastating impacts on marine ecosystems—for example, causing mass coral …

[HTML][HTML] Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions

CJ White, DIV Domeisen, N Acharya… - Bulletin of the …, 2022 - journals.ametsoc.org
The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive time scale, encompassing lead times ranging
from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this time …

Impact forecasting to support emergency management of natural hazards

B Merz, C Kuhlicke, M Kunz, M Pittore… - Reviews of …, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties,
and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude …

Sub‐seasonal forecasting with a large ensemble of deep‐learning weather prediction models

JA Weyn, DR Durran, R Caruana… - Journal of Advances …, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
We present an ensemble prediction system using a Deep Learning Weather Prediction
(DLWP) model that recursively predicts six key atmospheric variables with six‐hour time …

[HTML][HTML] Windows of opportunity for skillful forecasts subseasonal to seasonal and beyond

A Mariotti, C Baggett, EA Barnes… - Bulletin of the …, 2020 - journals.ametsoc.org
There is high demand and a growing expectation for predictions of environmental conditions
that go beyond 0–14-day weather forecasts with outlooks extending to one or more seasons …

[HTML][HTML] Stratospheric drivers of extreme events at the Earth's surface

DIV Domeisen, AH Butler - Communications Earth & Environment, 2020 - nature.com
The stratosphere, the layer of the atmosphere at heights between 10-50 km, is an important
source of variability for the weather and climate at the Earth's surface on timescales of weeks …

[HTML][HTML] Advances in the subseasonal prediction of extreme events: Relevant case studies across the globe

DIV Domeisen, CJ White… - Bulletin of the …, 2022 - journals.ametsoc.org
Alexander, LV, M. Bador, R. Roca, S. Contractor, MG Donat, and PL Nguyen, 2020:
Intercomparison of annual precipitation indices and extremes over global land areas from in …

[HTML][HTML] The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): A multimodel subseasonal prediction experiment

K Pegion, BP Kirtman, E Becker… - Bulletin of the …, 2019 - journals.ametsoc.org
The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): A Multimodel Subseasonal Prediction Experiment in:
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 100 Issue 10 (2019) Jump to …

The role of the stratosphere in subseasonal to seasonal prediction: 2. Predictability arising from stratosphere‐troposphere coupling

DIV Domeisen, AH Butler… - Journal of …, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
The stratosphere can have a significant impact on winter surface weather on subseasonal to
seasonal (S2S) timescales. This study evaluates the ability of current operational S2S …