[HTML][HTML] Forecasting: theory and practice

F Petropoulos, D Apiletti, V Assimakopoulos… - International Journal of …, 2022 - Elsevier
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The
uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and …

SRISK: A conditional capital shortfall measure of systemic risk

C Brownlees, RF Engle - The Review of Financial Studies, 2017 - academic.oup.com
We introduce SRISK to measure the systemic risk contribution of a financial firm. SRISK
measures the capital shortfall of a firm conditional on a severe market decline, and is a …

Evaluating the impact of unconventional monetary policy measures: Empirical evidence from the ECB׳ s Securities Markets Programme

F Eser, B Schwaab - Journal of Financial Economics, 2016 - Elsevier
We assess the yield impact of asset purchases within the European Central Bank׳ s (ECB)
Securities Markets Programme (SMP) in five euro area sovereign bond markets from 2010 …

Time-varying systemic risk: Evidence from a dynamic copula model of cds spreads

DH Oh, AJ Patton - Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2018 - Taylor & Francis
This article proposes a new class of copula-based dynamic models for high-dimensional
conditional distributions, facilitating the estimation of a wide variety of measures of systemic …

Credit default swaps: A survey

P Augustin, MG Subrahmanyam… - … and trends® in …, 2014 - nowpublishers.com
Credit default swaps (CDS) have been growing in importance in the global financial
markets. However, their role has been hotly debated, in industry and academia, particularly …

Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe

M Caporin, L Pelizzon, F Ravazzolo… - Journal of Financial …, 2018 - Elsevier
This paper analyzes sovereign risk shift-contagion, ie positive and significant changes in the
propagation mechanisms, using bond yield spreads for the major eurozone countries. By …

Forecasting cryptocurrency volatility

L Catania, S Grassi - International Journal of Forecasting, 2022 - Elsevier
This paper studies the behavior of cryptocurrencies' financial time series, of which Bitcoin is
the most prominent example. The dynamics of these series are quite complex, displaying …

Spillover dynamics for systemic risk measurement using spatial financial time series models

F Blasques, SJ Koopman, A Lucas… - Journal of …, 2016 - Elsevier
We extend the well-known static spatial Durbin model by introducing a time-varying spatial
dependence parameter. The updating steps for this model are functions of past data and …

Euro area government bonds–Fragmentation and contagion during the sovereign debt crisis

M Ehrmann, M Fratzscher - Journal of International Money and Finance, 2017 - Elsevier
The paper analyzes the integration of euro area sovereign bond markets during the
European sovereign debt crisis. It tests for contagion (ie, an intensification in the …

The empirical analysis of liquidity

CW Holden, S Jacobsen… - … and Trends® in …, 2014 - nowpublishers.com
We provide a synthesis of the empirical evidence on market liquidity. The liquidity
measurement literature has established standard measures of liquidity that apply to broad …