Best practices for estimating and reporting epidemiological delay distributions of infectious diseases

K Charniga, SW Park, AR Akhmetzhanov… - PLoS computational …, 2024 - journals.plos.org
Epidemiological delays are key quantities that inform public health policy and clinical
practice. They are used as inputs for mathematical and statistical models, which in turn can …

Nowcasting the 2022 mpox outbreak in England

CE Overton, S Abbott, R Christie… - PLOS Computational …, 2023 - journals.plos.org
In May 2022, a cluster of mpox cases were detected in the UK that could not be traced to
recent travel history from an endemic region. Over the coming months, the outbreak grew …

[HTML][HTML] Nowcasting and forecasting the 2022 US Mpox outbreak: support for public health decision making and lessons learned

K Charniga, ZJ Madewell, NB Masters, J Asher… - Epidemics, 2024 - Elsevier
In June of 2022, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Mpox Response
wanted timely answers to important epidemiological questions which can now be answered …

Collaborative nowcasting of COVID-19 hospitalization incidences in Germany

D Wolffram, S Abbott, M An der Heiden… - PLOS Computational …, 2023 - journals.plos.org
Real-time surveillance is a crucial element in the response to infectious disease outbreaks.
However, the interpretation of incidence data is often hampered by delays occurring at …

Tracking changes in SARS-CoV-2 transmission with a novel outpatient sentinel surveillance system in Chicago, USA

R Richardson, E Jorgensen, P Arevalo… - Nature …, 2022 - nature.com
Public health indicators typically used for COVID-19 surveillance can be biased or lag
changing community transmission patterns. In this study, we investigate whether sentinel …

Post-processing and weighted combination of infectious disease nowcasts

AVR Amaral, D Wolffram, P Moraga, J Bracher - medRxiv, 2024 - medrxiv.org
In infectious disease surveillance, incidence data are frequently subject to reporting delays
and retrospective corrections, making it hard to assess current trends in real time. A variety …

Evaluating the use of social contact data to produce age-specific forecasts of SARS-CoV-2 incidence

JD Munday, S Abbott, S Meakin, S Funk - medRxiv, 2022 - medrxiv.org
Short-term forecasts can provide predictions of how an epidemic will change in the near
future and form a central part of outbreak mitigation and control. Renewal-equation based …

[PDF][PDF] Evaluating Semi-Parametric Nowcasts of COVID-19 Hospital Admissions in Germany

S Abbott, S Funk - epiforecasts.io
COVID-19 hospitalisations in Germany are released by date of positive test rather than by
date of admission. This has some advantages when they are used as a tool for surveillance …