[HTML][HTML] Hedging global currency risk: A dynamic machine learning approach

P Pagnottoni, A Spelta - Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its …, 2024 - Elsevier
We propose a dynamic method to hedge foreign exchange risk of international equity
portfolios. The method is based on the currency return forecasts derived from a set of …

Explainable machine learning for credit risk management when features are dependent

TT Do, G Babaei, P Pagnottoni - … : Interdisciplinary Research and …, 2024 - Taylor & Francis
ABSTRACT Complex Machine Learning (ML) models used to support decision-making in
peer-to-peer (P2P) lending often lack clear, accurate, and interpretable explanations. While …

A fast matrix autoregression algorithm based on Tucker decomposition for online prediction of nonlinear real-time taxi-hailing demand without pre-training

Z Xu, Z Lv, B Chu, J Li - Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2024 - Elsevier
Online prediction of real-time taxi-hailing demand generally provides better real-time
decision support for passengers and taxi drivers compared with offline prediction. Current …

Statistically validated coeherence and intensity in temporal networks of information flows

P Pagnottoni, A Spelta - Statistical Methods & Applications, 2024 - Springer
We propose a method for characterizing the local structure of weighted multivariate time
series networks. We draw intensity and coherence of network motifs, ie statistically recurrent …

Wasserstein barycenter regression: application to the joint dynamics of regional GDP and life expectancy in Italy

S Levantesi, A Nigri, P Pagnottoni, A Spelta - AStA Advances in Statistical …, 2024 - Springer
We propose to investigate the joint dynamics of regional gross domestic product and life
expectancy in Italy through Wasserstein barycenter regression derived from optimal …

Subsample, Generate, and Stack Using the Spiral Discovery Method: A Framework for Autoregressive Data Compression and Augmentation

ÁB Csapó - IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and …, 2024 - ieeexplore.ieee.org
This article addresses the challenge of efficiently managing datasets of various sizes
through two key strategies: 1) dataset compression and 2) synthetic augmentation. This …

[HTML][HTML] The topological structure of panel variance decomposition networks

A Celani, P Cerchiello, P Pagnottoni - Journal of Financial Stability, 2024 - Elsevier
In this paper we provide a framework to study the network topology of generalized forecast
error variance decomposition (GFEVD) derived from multi-country, multi-variable time series …

Explainable machine learning for financial risk management: two practical use cases

A Famà, J Myftiu, P Pagnottoni, A Spelta - Statistics, 2024 - Taylor & Francis
We explore the potential of machine learning (ML) models applied in two financial risk
management areas, ie, credit risk management and financial risk hedging, through two …

Covariance analysis and GMM estimation of Markov switching bilinear processes

A Bibi, F Hamdi - Statistics, 2024 - Taylor & Francis
In this paper, we study the second and third order cumulants of bilinear models with regime
changes according to a Markov chain (MS− BL for short). We provide conditions for the …

The multidimensional relationships between sentiment, returns and volatility

A Celani, P Pagnottoni - Returns and Volatility (January 25, 2023), 2023 - papers.ssrn.com
Modern time series analysis is facing the increasing availability of multidimensional data
generated over time. In finance, co-movements can be observed, for instance, across …