We develop early warning models for financial crisis prediction applying machine learning
techniques on macrofinancial data for 17 countries over 1870–2016. Most nonlinear …

I uncover heterogeneous effects of macroprudential policy on GDP growth distribution by
bringing together the literature on the impact of macroprudential policy and recent …

Do periods of persistently loose monetary policy increase financial fragility and the
likelihood of a financial crisis? This is a central question for policymakers, yet the literature …

Abstract The Growth-at-Risk (GaR) measure for financial stability indicates how severe a
recession could become in an extreme situation where future output growth falls into the 5th …

Timely monitoring GDP-at-risk and tracing economic downside risk sources can help
establish effective risk warning and prevention systems. This study constructs a probability …

This paper presents the main results of the Spanish Survey of Household Finances 2022,
which reflect the financial situation of Spanish households as at end-2022. These results are …

This paper explores the foundations for the application of the empirical growth-at-risk (GaR)
approach to the assessment and design of macroprudential policies. It starts considering a …

We characterise the probability distributions of various types of gross capital flows
conditional on information contained in financial asset prices in a panel of emerging market …

We study how foreign financial developments influence the conditional distribution of
domestic GDP growth. We propose a method to account for foreign vulnerabilities using …

Este documento presenta un conjunto amplio de análisis para, en primer lugar, identificar el
nivel de los riesgos sistémicos cíclicos en España y calibrar su impacto sobre la solvencia …