US estimates of the natural rate of interest–the real short-term interest rate that would prevail
absent transitory disturbances–have declined dramatically since the start of the global …

Persistently low real interest rates have prompted the question whether low interest rates are
here to stay. This essay assesses the empirical evidence regarding the natural rate of …

Secular stagnation theory has developed substantially recently and offers substantial
insights that policymakers have yet to fully internalize. This paper reviews the considerations …

We examine the potential adverse effects of a prolonged period of low interest rates on
financial stability from multiple perspectives. First, we provide a unique comparison of …

Policymakers and academics have long maintained that nominal interest rates face a zero
lower bound (ZLB), which can only be breached through major institutional changes like the …

A large number of recent papers have endeavored to estimate the current level and trend in
the equilibrium real interest rate. A common finding in these studies is that the equilibrium …

The aim of this paper is to assess to what extent the Taylor rule can be considered an
appropriate representation of the tendency of central banks to react to inflation. After an …

The first book-length work on market monetarism, written by its leading scholar. Is it possible
that the consensus around what caused the 2008 Great Recession is almost entirely wrong …

The paper reviews some of the important developments since the financial crisis both on the
issue of secular stagnation, as put forth by Lawrence Summers, and the rising share of profit …

Some key structural features of the US economy appear to have changed in the recent
decades, making the conduct of monetary policy more challenging. In particular, there is …