Thomas A. Garrett and Russell M. Rhine ply refer to this as Social Security throughout the
remainder of the paper, unless noted otherwise. Social Security (OASDI) is commonly …

Macroeconomic forecasts are used extensively in industry and government. The historical
accuracy of US and UK forecasts are examined in the light of different approaches to …

This paper examines whether indicators of consumer and business confidence can predict
movements in GDP over the business cycle for four European economies. The empirical …

We study the role of sentiment variables as predictors for US recessions. We combine
sentiment variables with either classical recession predictors or common factors based on a …

Precise macroeconomic forecasting is one of the major aims of economic analysis because
it facilitates a timely assessment of future economic conditions and can be used for …

Business cycle analysts traditionally interpret consumer sentiment data as containing
information about current and future consumer behaviour. One important attraction of these …

This study examines the impact of the determinants of consumer confidence in Indonesia,
one of the largest consumer markets in the world. Various macroeconomic factors are …

Recent econometric analysis shows consumer confidence innovations have long lasting
effects on economic activities like consumption. Using US data, we show this conclusion is …

It is often believed that the consumer sentiment index has predictive power for future
consumption levels. While Granger causality tests have already been used to test for this, no …

This paper builds upon the renowned media reports-based “Economic policy
uncertainty”(EPU) index and analyzes its Granger-causal interrelationships with consumer …