Approaches and developments in demographic and population forecasting since 1980 are
reviewed. Three approaches to forecasting demographic processes are extrapolation …

Age–sex-specific population forecasts are derived through stochastic population renewal
using forecasts of mortality, fertility and net migration. Functional data models with time …

The goal of Chapter 1 is to describe and comment on the methods and approaches that
have been in use or have emerged in recent years. Section 1.1 introduces the most common …

Deterministic population forecasts do not give an appropriate indication of forecast
uncertainty. Forecasts should be probabilistic, so that their expected accuracy can be …

This article links parameterized model mortality schedules with time series methods to
develop forecasts of US mortality to the year 2000. The use of model mortality schedules …

There are signs that fertility in rich countries may have stopped declining, but this depends
critically on whether women currently in reproductive ages are postponing or reducing …

Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health
policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs …

This paper considers parametric graduation for mortality, fertility and migration with
particular reference to the development of parameterized local and regional demographic …

The total fertility rate is influenced over an extended period of time by shifts in population
socioeconomic characteristics and attitudes and values. However, it may be impacted by …

The aim of the 'Uncertain Population of Europe'(UPE) project was to compute long-term
stochastic (probabilistic) population forecasts for 18 European countries. We developed a …