Many systems on our planet shift abruptly and irreversibly from the desired state to an
undesired state when forced across a “tipping point”. Some examples are mass extinctions …

We update Rose and Spiegel (forthcoming, 2010) and search for simple quantitative models
of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the “Great Recession” of 2008–09. We use a …

The method of model averaging has become an important tool to deal with model
uncertainty, for example in situations where a large amount of different theories exist, as are …

This paper assesses the global spillovers from identified US monetary policy shocks in a
global VAR model. US monetary policy generates sizable output spillovers to the rest of the …

A key precursor of twentieth-century financial crises in emerging and advanced economies
alike was the rapid buildup of leverage. Those emerging economies that avoided leverage …

The current crisis saw an unprecedented collapse in international capital flows after years of
rising financial globalization. We identify the stylized facts and main drivers of this …

This article describes the BMS (Bayesian model sampling) package for R that implements
Bayesian model averaging for linear regression models. The package excels in allowing for …

We investigate whether leading indicators can help explain the cross-country incidence of
the 2008–09 financial crisis. Rather than looking for indicators with specific relevance to the …

During the pre‐crisis period, Europe experienced substantial cross‐country variation in
domestic credit growth and cross‐border capital flows. We investigate the inter‐relations …

Abstract The financial crisis of 2007--2008 is rooted in a number of factors, some common to
previous financial crises, others new. Analysis of post-crisis macroeconomic and financial …