The past 25 years has seen phenomenal growth of interest in judgemental approaches to
forecasting and a significant change of attitude on the part of researchers to the role of …

The initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. All
three authors were attending the 1996 meeting of the Population As-ciation of America in …

This paper reviews the literature on the contributions of judgemental methods to the
forecasting process. Using a contingent approach, it first reviews the empirical studies …

The failure of economic forecasters to predict the most recent US recession has renewed
interest in the idea of supplementing model-based forecasts with information from other …

The expected error variance of a combined forecast is necessarily lower than that of an
individual forecast, but in practice there may be considerable variation around these …

In this paper, we use survey data to analyze the accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of
professional macroeconomic forecasts. We analyze a large panel of individual forecasts that …

Most of our knowledge of the accuracy or goodness of human judgement has been gained
from studies carried out in a setting of multivariate non-serially correlated cues. This is not …

Demographers are frequently called upon to produce population information when census
and related data are not available. Information about a present or past population is called …

This paper uses the track records of a panel of US economic forecasters participating in a
consensus forecasting service to test for conservatism and consensus‐seeking behaviour …

THIS PAPER DEVELOPS TESTS FOR RATIONALITY in the forecasts made by economists
who contribute to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators consensus forecasting service, and …