Financial cycles can be important drivers of real activity, but there is scant evidence about
how well they signal recession risks. We address this question, using a range of financial …

To assess the economic determinants of oil futures volatility, we firstly develop and estimate
a multi-factor oil futures pricing model with stochastic volatility that is able to disentangle …

Resilience describes the capacity of systems to react to, withstand, adjust to, and recover
from disruptive events. Despite numerous metrics proposed to quantify resilience, few …

Based on monthly data from 1970 to 2022 and the AUROC performance metric, we show
that yield curve inversions generally predict recessions in the euro area. However, there are …

The yield curve is an important tool to assess the economic progress of a country. In this
study, we examine the strength of the relationship between term spread and economic …

COVID-19 poses an unprecedented threat to components of global business cycles
including stock markets, industrial production and employment. This study investigated its …

The paper examines whether certain macrofinancial indicators can be used for early
detection of recessions. Analysing a sample of small open economies from Central and …

Even though many studies have established the existence of structural breaks and declining
predictability in the relationship between GDP growth and yield spreads, business analysts …

Two recession-derivative indicators (RDIs) have been used extensively as forecast objects
in business cycle prediction, viz.(1) the target variable takes value 1 if there is a recession …

This paper compares several methods for constructing weekly nowcasts of recession
probabilities in Italy, with a focus on the most recent period of the Covid‐19 pandemic. The …