Overprecision in judgment is both the most durable and the least understood form of
overconfidence. This chapter reviews the evidence on overprecision, highlighting its …

BACKGROUND Many decisions in health care aim to maximise health, requiring
judgements about interventions that may have higher health effects but potentially incur …

Forming connections between human performance and design, this new edition of
Engineering Psychology and Human Performance examines human–machine interaction …

Errors in estimating and forecasting often result from the failure to collect and consider
enough relevant information. We examine whether attributes associated with persistence in …

Summary Judgment and decision making researchers have produced many insights to
improve the capacity to decide. Decades of research have yielded an array of debiasing …

Can decision-maker roles—roles with responsibility for allocating resources toward ideas—
shape which ideas people in those roles view as creative? Prior theory suggests that …

Previous studies have shown that individuals make suboptimal decisions in a variety of
supply chain and inventory settings. We hypothesize that one cause is that individuals are …

Overconfidence is one of the most consistent, powerful, and widespread cognitive biases
affecting decision making in situations characterized by random outcomes. In this paper, we …

How accurate are laypeople's intuitions about probability distributions of events? The
economic and psychological literatures provide opposing answers. A classical economic …

Entrepreneurs are often described as overconfident (or at least very confident), even when
entering difficult markets. However, recent laboratory findings suggest that difficult tasks tend …