An archived dataset from the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System for probabilistic solar power forecasting
Ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) is the backbone of the state-of-the-art solar
forecasting for horizons ranging between a few hours and a few days. Dynamical ensemble …
forecasting for horizons ranging between a few hours and a few days. Dynamical ensemble …
Comparing explanation methods for traditional machine learning models part 1: an overview of current methods and quantifying their disagreement
With increasing interest in explaining machine learning (ML) models, the first part of this two-
part study synthesizes recent research on methods for explaining global and local aspects of …
part study synthesizes recent research on methods for explaining global and local aspects of …
Using machine learning to generate storm-scale probabilistic guidance of severe weather hazards in the Warn-on-Forecast system
A primary goal of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Warn-on-Forecast
(WoF) project is to provide rapidly updating probabilistic guidance to human forecasters for …
(WoF) project is to provide rapidly updating probabilistic guidance to human forecasters for …
Quantification of NSSL Warn-on-Forecast System accuracy by storm age using object-based verification
Abstract The National Severe Storm Laboratory's Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) is a
convection-allowing ensemble with rapidly cycled data assimilation (DA) of various satellite …
convection-allowing ensemble with rapidly cycled data assimilation (DA) of various satellite …
Warn-on-forecast system: From vision to reality
PL Heinselman, PC Burke, LJ Wicker… - Weather and …, 2024 - journals.ametsoc.org
In 2009, advancements in NWP and computing power inspired a vision to advance
hazardous weather warnings from a warn-on-detection to a warn-on-forecast paradigm. This …
hazardous weather warnings from a warn-on-detection to a warn-on-forecast paradigm. This …
What is the intrinsic predictability of tornadic supercell thunderstorms?
PM Markowski - Monthly Weather Review, 2020 - journals.ametsoc.org
A 25-member ensemble of relatively high-resolution (75-m horizontal grid spacing)
numerical simulations of tornadic supercell storms is used to obtain insight on their intrinsic …
numerical simulations of tornadic supercell storms is used to obtain insight on their intrinsic …
[HTML][HTML] Object-based verification of short-term, storm-scale probabilistic mesocyclone guidance from an experimental Warn-on-Forecast system
Object-Based Verification of Short-Term, Storm-Scale Probabilistic Mesocyclone Guidance from
an Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System in: Weather and Forecasting Volume 34 Issue 6 …
an Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System in: Weather and Forecasting Volume 34 Issue 6 …
Notable contributions of aerosols to the predictability of hail precipitation
There are increasing concerns about the uncertainty aerosols produced in forecasting
precipitation, particularly hail. This study provides an assessment of the contribution of …
precipitation, particularly hail. This study provides an assessment of the contribution of …
[HTML][HTML] Tornado-resolving ensemble and probabilistic predictions of the 20 May 2013 Newcastle–Moore EF5 tornado
Tornado-Resolving Ensemble and Probabilistic Predictions of the 20 May 2013 Newcastle–Moore
EF5 Tornado in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 147 Issue 4 (2019) Jump to Content …
EF5 Tornado in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 147 Issue 4 (2019) Jump to Content …
Interpreting Warn-on-Forecast System Guidance, Part I: Review of Probabilistic Guidance Concepts, Product Design, and Best Practices
The Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) is a convection-allowing ensemble prediction system
designed to primarily provide guidance on thunderstorm hazards from the meso-beta to …
designed to primarily provide guidance on thunderstorm hazards from the meso-beta to …