Developing, testing, and communicating earthquake forecasts: Current practices and future directions

L Mizrahi, I Dallo, NJ van der Elst… - Reviews of …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible,
earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes …

pyCSEP: a Python toolkit for earthquake forecast developers

WH Savran, JA Bayona, P Iturrieta… - Seismological …, 2022 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
Abstract The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is an open and
global community whose mission is to accelerate earthquake predictability research through …

On the use of high‐resolution and deep‐learning seismic catalogs for short‐term earthquake forecasts: Potential benefits and current limitations

S Mancini, M Segou, MJ Werner… - Journal of …, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
Enhanced earthquake catalogs provide detailed images of evolving seismic sequences.
Currently, these data sets take some time to be released but will soon become available in …

Statistical power of spatial earthquake forecast tests

AM Khawaja, S Hainzl, D Schorlemmer… - Geophysical Journal …, 2023 - academic.oup.com
SUMMARY The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is an
international effort to evaluate earthquake forecast models prospectively. In CSEP, one way …

Maximizing the forecasting skill of an ensemble model

M Herrmann, W Marzocchi - Geophysical Journal International, 2023 - academic.oup.com
An ensemble model integrates forecasts of different models (or different parametrizations of
the same model) into one single ensemble forecast. This procedure has different names in …

Operational Earthquake Forecasting in Italy: validation after 10 yr of operativity

I Spassiani, G Falcone, M Murru… - Geophysical Journal …, 2023 - academic.oup.com
In this paper, we gather and take stock of the results produced by the Operational
Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) system in Italy, during its first 10 yr of operativity. The system …

Critical questions about CSEP, in the spirit of Dave, Yan, and Ilya

F Schoenberg, D Schorlemmer - Seismological …, 2024 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
In honor of our dear departed friends Yan Kagan, Dave Jackson, and Ilya Zaliapin, we
propose a selection of broad questions regarding earthquake forecasting and especially the …

Are regionally calibrated seismicity models more informative than global models? Insights from California, new zealand, and italy

JA Bayona, WH Savran, P Iturrieta… - The Seismic …, 2023 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
Earthquake forecasting models express hypotheses about seismogenesis that underpin
global and regional probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHAs). An implicit …

[HTML][HTML] Pseudo-prospective testing of 5-year earthquake forecasts for California using inlabru

K Bayliss, M Naylor, F Kamranzad… - Natural Hazards and …, 2022 - nhess.copernicus.org
Probabilistic earthquake forecasts estimate the likelihood of future earthquakes within a
specified time-space-magnitude window and are important because they inform planning of …

New features in the pyCSEP toolkit for earthquake forecast development and evaluation

KM Graham, JA Bayona… - Seismological …, 2024 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
Abstract The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global
community dedicated to advancing earthquake predictability research by rigorously testing …