Excess mortality studies provide crucial information regarding the health burden of
pandemics and other large-scale events. Here, we use time series approaches to separate …

Excess mortality studies provide crucial information regarding the health burden of
pandemics and other large-scale events. Here, we used time series approaches to separate …

The annual influenza outbreak leads to significant public health and economic burdens
making it desirable to have prompt and accurate probabilistic forecasts of the disease …

Time series of proportions of infected patients or positive specimens are frequently
encountered in disease control and prevention. Since proportions are bounded and often …

The all-pervasive lens that humans ordinarily use to watch and analyze the pandemic is
time. This article considers an alternative. Instead of tracking incidence as a function of time …

With the advent of expedient data sharing of epidemiological reports, efforts have been
made to forecast ongoing epidemics in real-time. Throughout this work, we develop a real …

While a common trend in disease modeling is to develop models of increasing complexity, it
was recently pointed out that outbreaks appear remarkably simple when viewed in the …