This survey features three parts. The first one reviews the most recent literature on the
relationship between domestic (ie, country‐specific) uncertainty and the business cycle, and …

Can increased uncertainty about the future cause a contraction in output and its
components? An identified uncertainty shock in the data causes significant declines in …

We study how unexpected changes in uncertainty about fiscal policy affect economic activity.
First, we estimate tax and spending processes for the United States with time-varying …

The toolkit adapts a first-order perturbation approach and applies it in a piecewise fashion to
solve dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints. Our examples include a real …

We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987
onwards, building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects …

Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a nonlinear DSGE model in which the interest-rate
lower bound is occasionally binding. We quantify the size and nature of disturbances that …

We employ a parsimonious nonlinear Interacted-VAR to examine whether the real effects of
uncertainty shocks are greater when the economy is at the Zero Lower Bound. We find the …

With projections showing inflation heading back toward target and the labor market
continuing to improve, the Federal Reserve has begun to contemplate an increase in the …

This paper analyses the role of a news-based measure of economic policy uncertainty
(EPU) in explaining time-varying co-movements in economic activity and volatility of 48 US …

Under conventional inflation targeting (IT), the lower bound on nominal interest rates gives
rise to a systematic downward bias in inflation that substantially reduces welfare. Using two …