Measuring investor sentiment

G Zhou - Annual Review of Financial Economics, 2018 - annualreviews.org
Investor sentiment indicates how far an asset value deviates from its economic
fundamentals. In this article, we review various measures of investor sentiment based on …

Short selling: A review of the literature and implications for future research

H Jiang, A Habib, MM Hasan - European Accounting Review, 2022 - Taylor & Francis
This systematic literature review critically analyzes studies on the determinants of short
selling and the implications for information distribution, real economic decisions, financial …

Geopolitical risk trends and crude oil price predictability

Z Zhang, M He, Y Zhang, Y Wang - Energy, 2022 - Elsevier
Motivated by recent investigations on the connections between geopolitical risk and crude
oil prices, we implement a moving average strategy using the geopolitical risk index to …

A comprehensive 2022 look at the empirical performance of equity premium prediction

A Goyal, I Welch, A Zafirov - The Review of Financial Studies, 2024 - academic.oup.com
Our paper reexamines whether 29 variables from 26 papers published after, as well as the
original 17 variables, were useful in predicting the equity premium in-sample and out-of …

Forecasting crude oil prices with a large set of predictors: Can LASSO select powerful predictors?

Y Zhang, F Ma, Y Wang - Journal of Empirical Finance, 2019 - Elsevier
In this paper, we use two prevailing shrinkage methods, the lasso and elastic net, to predict
oil price returns with a large set of predictors. The out-of-sample results indicate that the …

Geopolitical risk and oil volatility: A new insight

J Liu, F Ma, Y Tang, Y Zhang - Energy Economics, 2019 - Elsevier
Motivated by the importance of geopolitical risk and its possible predictive power for oil
volatility, this paper aims to quantitatively investigate the role of geopolitical risk (GPR) …

Forecasting crude oil market volatility using variable selection and common factor

Y Zhang, MIM Wahab, Y Wang - International Journal of Forecasting, 2023 - Elsevier
This paper aims to improve the predictability of aggregate oil market volatility with a
substantially large macroeconomic database, including 127 macro variables. To this end …

A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium prediction

I Welch, A Goyal - The Review of Financial Studies, 2008 - academic.oup.com
Our article comprehensively reexamines the performance of variables that have been
suggested by the academic literature to be good predictors of the equity premium. We find …

Forecasting crude oil prices: A scaled PCA approach

M He, Y Zhang, D Wen, Y Wang - Energy Economics, 2021 - Elsevier
In this paper, we employ a novel dimension reduction approach, the scaled principal
component analysis (s-PCA), to improve the oil price predictability with technical indicators …

Climate policy uncertainty and the stock return predictability of the oil industry

M He, Y Zhang - Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions …, 2022 - Elsevier
This paper uses a news-based climate policy uncertainty (CPU) proposed by Gavriilidis
(2021) to test the stock return predictability of the oil industry. Results show that CPU is a …