Risk and uncertainty communication

D Spiegelhalter - Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, 2017 - annualreviews.org
This review briefly examines the vast range of techniques used to communicate risk
assessments arising from statistical analysis. After discussing essential psychological and …

Four new horsemen of an apocalypse? solar flares, super-volcanoes, pandemics, and artificial intelligence

I Noy, T Uher - Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 2022 - Springer
If economists have largely failed to predict or prevent the Global Financial Crisis in 2008,
and the more disastrous economic collapse associated with the pandemic of 2020, what …

Island refuges for surviving nuclear winter and other abrupt sunlight‐reducing catastrophes

M Boyd, N Wilson - Risk Analysis, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
Some island nations in the Southern Hemisphere might survive a severe sun‐reducing
catastrophe such as nuclear winter and be well placed to help reboot‐collapsed human …

[HTML][HTML] Risk assessment for asteroid impact threat scenarios

L Wheeler, J Dotson, M Aftosmis, A Coates… - Acta Astronautica, 2024 - Elsevier
Asteroid impacts can cause a wide range of damage through multiple potential hazards,
from localized blast waves or thermal radiation, to tsunami inundation, to global climatic …

[HTML][HTML] A probabilistic asteroid impact risk model: assessment of sub-300 m impacts

DL Mathias, LF Wheeler, JL Dotson - Icarus, 2017 - Elsevier
A comprehensive asteroid threat assessment requires the quantification of both the impact
likelihood and resulting consequence across the range of possible events. This paper …

Asteroid impact effects and their immediate hazards for human populations

CM Rumpf, HG Lewis… - Geophysical Research …, 2017 - Wiley Online Library
A set of 50,000 artificial Earth impacting asteroids was used to obtain, for the first time,
information about the dominance of individual impact effects such as wind blast …

[HTML][HTML] Machine learning for the prediction of local asteroid damages

G Chomette, L Wheeler, D Mathias - Acta Astronautica, 2024 - Elsevier
Risk assessment studies of local asteroid hazards traditionally simulate the physics of
meteors with engineering models tailored to analyze tens-of-millions of scenarios. However …

The tragedy of the uncommons: On the politics of apocalypse

JB Wiener - Global Policy, 2016 - Wiley Online Library
The 'tragedy of the commons' is a classic type of problem, involving multiple actors who face
individual incentives to deplete shared resources and thereby impose harms on others …

A numerical assessment of simple airblast models of impact airbursts

GS Collins, E Lynch, R McAdam… - Meteoritics & Planetary …, 2017 - Wiley Online Library
Asteroids and comets 10–100 m in size that collide with Earth disrupt dramatically in the
atmosphere with an explosive transfer of energy, caused by extreme air drag. Such airbursts …

Uncertainty quantification in continuous fragmentation airburst models

S McMullan, GS Collins - Icarus, 2019 - Elsevier
As evidenced by the Chelyabinsk and Tunguska airburst events in Russia, decameter-scale
Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) can pose a hazard to human life and infrastructure from the …