Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational
awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent …
awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent …
Scoring epidemiological forecasts on transformed scales
Forecast evaluation is essential for the development of predictive epidemic models and can
inform their use for public health decision-making. Common scores to evaluate …
inform their use for public health decision-making. Common scores to evaluate …
Combining models to generate a consensus effective reproduction number R for the COVID-19 epidemic status in England
H Manley, J Park, L Bevan… - Epidemiology & …, 2024 - cambridge.org
Accepted Manuscript Page 1 This is an Accepted Manuscript for Epidemiology & Infection.
Subject to change during the editing and production process. DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824000347 …
Subject to change during the editing and production process. DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824000347 …
Transformation of forecasts for evaluating predictive performance in an epidemiological context
Forecast evaluation is essential for the development of predictive epidemic models and can
inform their use for public health decision-making. Common scores to evaluate …
inform their use for public health decision-making. Common scores to evaluate …
Trend estimation and short-term forecasting of COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, many dashboards have emerged as useful
tools to monitor its evolution, inform the public, and assist governments in decision-making …
tools to monitor its evolution, inform the public, and assist governments in decision-making …
[HTML][HTML] Human judgement forecasting of COVID-19 in the UK
Background In the past, two studies found ensembles of human judgement forecasts of
COVID-19 to show predictive performance comparable to ensembles of computational …
COVID-19 to show predictive performance comparable to ensembles of computational …
Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021
During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and
response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID …
response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID …
Estimating the COVID-19 prevalence from wastewater
Wastewater based epidemiology has become a widely used tool for monitoring trends of
concentrations of different pathogens, most notably and widespread of SARS-CoV-2 …
concentrations of different pathogens, most notably and widespread of SARS-CoV-2 …
Evaluation of predictive capability of Bayesian spatio-temporal models for Covid-19 spread
AB Lawson - BMC Medical Research Methodology, 2023 - Springer
Background Bayesian models have been applied throughout the Covid-19 pandemic
especially to model time series of case counts or deaths. Fewer examples exist of spatio …
especially to model time series of case counts or deaths. Fewer examples exist of spatio …
Combining models to generate consensus medium-term projections of hospital admissions, occupancy and deaths relating to COVID-19 in England
H Manley, T Bayley, G Danelian… - Royal Society …, 2024 - royalsocietypublishing.org
Mathematical modelling has played an important role in offering informed advice during the
COVID-19 pandemic. In England, a cross government and academia collaboration …
COVID-19 pandemic. In England, a cross government and academia collaboration …