Individual forecasts of economic variables show widespread overreaction to recent news,
but laboratory experiments on belief updating typically find underinference from new signals …

This paper develops a belief update rule under ambiguity, motivated by the maxim: in the
face of new information, retain those conditional beliefs in which you are more confident …

This paper develops a framework for estimating Quantal Response Equilibrium models from
experimental data using Bayesian techniques. Bayesian techniques offer some advantages …

ESSAYS ON BELIEF FORMATION A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF
ECONOMICS AND THE COMMITTEE ON GRADUATE STUDIES OF STAN Page 1 ESSAYS …

Base rate neglect typically involves the underweighting of priors in a world with objective
probability distributions (Kahneman and Tversky, 1973). In reality, however, individuals often …

Bayesian estimates from experimental data can be influenced by highly diffuse or"
uninformative" priors. This paper discusses how practitioners can use their own expertise to …

Use of fertilizer and hybrid seed remains low in much of Sub-Saharan Africa. A possible
contributor to low adoption is farmers uncertain about the quality of agricultural inputs …

In experiments of decision-making under risk, structural mixture models allow us to take a
menu of theories about decision-making to the data, estimating the fraction of people who …