We prove that a subtle but substantial bias exists in a common measure of the conditional
dependence of present outcomes on streaks of past outcomes in sequential data. The …

The hot hand fallacy has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion
with important economic consequences. While the canonical domain of the fallacy is …

Abstract The NBA Three-Point Contest has been considered an ideal setting to study the hot
hand, as it showcases the elite professional shooters that hot hand beliefs are typically …

We investigate how individuals use measures of apparent predictability from price charts to
predict future market prices. Subjects in our experiment predict both random walk times …

We present a laboratory experiment designed to investigate the effect of the fee structure on
mutual fund choice. We find that subjects tend to ignore periodic and small operating …

There has been no systematic study in the literature of how self-deception differs from other
kinds of self-distortion. For example, the term 'cognitive dissonance'has been used in some …

The canonical hot hand fallacy result was recently reversed, based largely on a single
statistic, and a data set that was underpowered for individual-level testing. Here we perform …

From shopping to financial investment and life planning, intertemporal choice is everywhere
in daily life. The psychological power theory based on the concept of luck has explored the …

Luck, as a universal psychological phenomenon, has a unique impact on consumers'
decision-making behavior. Although studies have shown that luck affects people's moral …

The hot hand fallacy has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion
with important implications in economics and finance. We develop a novel empirical strategy …