The paper draws lessons from the experience of the past year for the conduct of central
banks in the pursuit of macroeconomic and financial stability. Macroeconomic stability is …

Food prices are generally excluded from measures of inflation most closely watched by
policymakers due either to their transitory nature or their higher volatility. However, in lower …

We construct a PCE-based price index whose weights minimize the welfare costs of nominal
distortions: a cost-of-nominal-distortions index. We compute these weights in a multi-sector …

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2011, 93 (4), pp. 223-33. inflation as
a meaningful way to interpret the inflation process in the United States. One immediate …

In this paper, we take stock of how statistical agencies in different nations are currently
accounting for housing in their consumer price indexes (CPIs). The rental equivalence and …

I am pleased to participate in the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston's 53rd annual economic
conference, dedicated to the topic of inflation and the Phillips curve. Forecasting and …

The inflation objective of the FOMC is set in terms of the rate of change of the price index for
total personal consumption expenditures (PCE). However, total PCE price inflation is highly …

Abstract “Core” PCE inflation—that is, inflation in PCE-ex-food-and-energy—is widely used
as an estimate of trend inflation. But it is long overdue for replacement. The original rationale …

Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of
underlying inflation that uses all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts …

We introduce two new measures of trend inflation, a median PCE inflation rate and a median
PCE excluding OER inflation rate, and investigate their performance. Our analysis indicates …