Asymmetries in unemployment dynamics have been observed in the time series of a number
of countries, including the United States. This paper studies asymmetries in unemployment …

Many central banks publish regular assessments of the magnitude and balance of risks to
the macroeconomic outlook. In this paper, we analyze the statistical properties of the …

Surveying the forecasting practice of several central banks, we find that all these banks
issue statements about risks to their macroeconomic forecasts. Often the balance of these …

To assess the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee decisions on the official bank
rate under forecast uncertainty, I estimate simple forecast-based interest rate rules …