Satellite conjunction analysis and the false confidence theorem

MS Balch, R Martin, S Ferson - Proceedings of the …, 2019 - royalsocietypublishing.org
Satellite conjunction analysis is the assessment of collision risk during a close encounter
between a satellite and another object in orbit. A counterintuitive phenomenon has emerged …

[PDF][PDF] Satellite conjunction assessment risk analysis for “dilution region” events: issues and operational approaches

MD Hejduk, DE Snow, LK Newman - Space Traffic Management …, 2019 - ntrs.nasa.gov
An important activity within Space Traffic Management is the detection and prevention of
possible on-orbit collisions between space objects. The principal parameter for assessing …

Exploring an Alternative Approach to the Assessment of Collision Risk

ED Delande, BA Jones, MK Jah - Journal of Guidance, Control, and …, 2023 - arc.aiaa.org
This paper explores the construction of a collision assessment method exploiting an
alternative to probability theory for the representation and quantification of uncertainty of the …

Stochastic Convergence of Sobol-Based Mahalanobis Shell Sampling Collision Probability Computation

UE Núñez Garzón, E Glenn Lightsey - Journal of Guidance, Control …, 2023 - arc.aiaa.org
Sample-based computation of the joint-time probability of collision motivates developing the
Mahalanobis Shell Sampling (MSS) algorithm, which samples nondegenerate normal …

Space oddity? A statistical formulation of conjunction assessment

S Elkantassi, AC Davison - Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, 2022 - arc.aiaa.org
Satellite conjunctions involving “near misses” of space objects are becoming increasingly
likely. One approach to risk analysis for them involves the computation of the collision …

Covariance realism is not enough

JR Carpenter - 2019 AAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference, 2019 - ntrs.nasa.gov
A great deal of effort has been put into improving the practice of space situational awareness
such that covariance data associated with predicted close approaches is more “realistic.” …

Satellite Conjunction" Probability,"" Possibility," and" Plausibility": A Categorization of Competing Conjunction Assessment Risk Assessment Paradigms

MD Hejduk, DE Snow - AAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist …, 2019 - ntrs.nasa.gov
A number of different conjunction assessment (CA) risk analysis methods and metrics have
been proposed in the critical literature, and they vary widely in purport and form. However …

Towards automation of constellation management with analytical models for collision avoidance

G Curzi - 2022 - amsdottorato.unibo.it
The growing interest for constellation of small, less expensive satellites is bringing space
junk and traffic management to the attention of space community. At the same time, the …

Higher Order Asymptotics: Applications to Satellite Conjunction and Boundary Problems

S Elkantassi - 2023 - infoscience.epfl.ch
Higher-order asymptotics provide accurate approximations for use in parametric statistical
modelling. In this thesis, we investigate using higher-order approximations in two-specific …