The collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability: Achievements and priorities

D Schorlemmer, MJ Werner… - Seismological …, 2018 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
ABSTRACT The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global
cyberinfrastructure for prospective evaluations of earthquake forecast models and prediction …

Forecasting the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake

R Shcherbakov, J Zhuang, G Zöller, Y Ogata - Nature communications, 2019 - nature.com
The majority of earthquakes occur unexpectedly and can trigger subsequent sequences of
events that can culminate in more powerful earthquakes. This self-exciting nature of …

Improving physics‐based aftershock forecasts during the 2016–2017 Central Italy Earthquake Cascade

S Mancini, M Segou, MJ Werner… - Journal of Geophysical …, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract The 2016–2017 Central Apennines earthquake sequence is a recent example of
how damages from subsequent aftershocks can exceed those caused by the initial …

[PDF][PDF] Evaluating the incompleteness magnitude using an unbiased estimate of the b value

C Godano, G Petrillo, E Lippiello - Geophysical Journal …, 2024 - academic.oup.com
The evaluation of the b value of the Gutenberg–Richter (GR) law, for a sample composed of
n earthquakes, presents a systematic positive bias δ b which is proportional to 1/n. In this …

The forecasting skill of physics‐based seismicity models during the 2010–2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence

C Cattania, MJ Werner… - Seismological …, 2018 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
The static coulomb stress hypothesis is a widely known physical mechanism for earthquake
triggering and thus a prime candidate for physics‐based operational earthquake forecasting …

Post seismic catalog incompleteness and aftershock forecasting

E Lippiello, A Cirillo, C Godano, E Papadimitriou… - Geosciences, 2019 - mdpi.com
A growing interest appears among public authorities and society in accurate and nearly real
time aftershock forecasting to manage and mitigate post-seismic risk. Existing methods for …

The overlap of aftershock coda waves and short‐term postseismic forecasting

L De Arcangelis, C Godano… - Journal of Geophysical …, 2018 - Wiley Online Library
The elaboration of reliable forecasting in the first hours after large shocks, very useful for the
postseismic management, is strongly affected by the huge incompleteness of seismic …

Estimating Real Seismicity Rates from Nonhomogeneously Recorded Earthquake Catalogs

Y Ogata - Seismological Research Letters, 2024 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
Accurate estimation of seismic activity using epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS)
models for small earthquakes is complicated by the incompleteness of the aftershock …

Testing of the foreshock hypothesis within an epidemic like description of seismicity

G Petrillo, E Lippiello - Geophysical Journal International, 2021 - academic.oup.com
The epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model provides a good description of the
post-seismic spatio-temporal clustering of seismicity and is also able to capture some …

Statistics and forecasting of aftershocks during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence

R Shcherbakov - Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract The 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence represents a complex
pattern of seismicity that is characterized by the occurrence of a well‐defined foreshock …