Monthly rainfall prediction is a crucial topic for the management of water resources and
prevention of hydrological disasters. To make a multi-step monthly rainfall prediction and …

Instrumental variable (IV) analysis relies on the exclusion restriction—that the instrument
only affects the dependent variable via its relationship with the independent variable and not …

We use georeferenced information on the location of violent events in sub-Saharan African
countries and provide evidence that external income shocks are important determinants of …

This article links lower economic returns in the labor-intensive agricultural sector to a higher
risk of armed conflict at the local level. It argues that income shocks, followed by rising …

With climate change projections indicating a likely future increase in extreme weather
phenomena, it is an urgent matter to assess the effect of drought on civil conflict. However …

Abstract Miguel, Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, show that
economic growth is negatively related to civil conflict in Africa, using annual rainfall variation …

Despite growing concerns about the possible security implications of extreme precipitation
shortfalls in vulnerable and politically fragile regions, the particular conditions that make …

When and why ethnic groups rebel remains a central puzzle in the civil war literature. In this
paper, we examine how different types of inequalities affect both an ethnic group's …

Droughts are unlikely to influence support for political violence unless they coincide with
unfavourable social and political conditions. In this article I suggest that support for violence …

This article examines the ways in which education and educational policy impact upon the
likelihood and dynamics of violent conflict. It argues that education is rarely directly …