External validation of prognostic models: what, why, how, when and where?

CL Ramspek, KJ Jager, FW Dekker… - Clinical Kidney …, 2021 - academic.oup.com
Prognostic models that aim to improve the prediction of clinical events, individualized
treatment and decision-making are increasingly being developed and published. However …

[HTML][HTML] Opportunities and challenges in developing risk prediction models with electronic health records data: a systematic review

BA Goldstein, AM Navar, MJ Pencina… - Journal of the …, 2017 - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Objective: Electronic health records (EHRs) are an increasingly common data source for
clinical risk prediction, presenting both unique analytic opportunities and challenges. We …

Illusory generalizability of clinical prediction models

AM Chekroud, M Hawrilenko, H Loho, J Bondar… - Science, 2024 - science.org
It is widely hoped that statistical models can improve decision-making related to medical
treatments. Because of the cost and scarcity of medical outcomes data, this hope is typically …

Predictive accuracy of a polygenic risk score–enhanced prediction model vs a clinical risk score for coronary artery disease

J Elliott, B Bodinier, TA Bond, M Chadeau-Hyam… - Jama, 2020 - jamanetwork.com
Importance The incremental value of polygenic risk scores in addition to well-established
risk prediction models for coronary artery disease (CAD) is uncertain. Objective To examine …

Machine learning and artificial intelligence research for patient benefit: 20 critical questions on transparency, replicability, ethics, and effectiveness

S Vollmer, BA Mateen, G Bohner, FJ Király, R Ghani… - bmj, 2020 - bmj.com
Machine learning, artificial intelligence, and other modern statistical methods are providing
new opportunities to operationalise previously untapped and rapidly growing sources of …

[HTML][HTML] Prediction models need appropriate internal, internal-external, and external validation

EW Steyerberg, FE Harrell Jr - Journal of clinical epidemiology, 2016 - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Another recent debate was on the interpretation of the lack of external validation studies of
published novel prediction models [3][4][5]. One issue is the role that validation should have …

Sample size considerations for the external validation of a multivariable prognostic model: a resampling study

GS Collins, EO Ogundimu, DG Altman - Statistics in medicine, 2016 - Wiley Online Library
After developing a prognostic model, it is essential to evaluate the performance of the model
in samples independent from those used to develop the model, which is often referred to as …

Prediction of in‐hospital mortality in emergency department patients with sepsis: a local big data–driven, machine learning approach

RA Taylor, JR Pare, AK Venkatesh… - Academic …, 2016 - Wiley Online Library
Objectives Predictive analytics in emergency care has mostly been limited to the use of
clinical decision rules (CDR s) in the form of simple heuristics and scoring systems. In the …

Exploration, inference, and prediction in neuroscience and biomedicine

D Bzdok, JPA Ioannidis - Trends in neurosciences, 2019 - cell.com
Recent decades have seen dramatic progress in brain research. These advances were
often buttressed by probing single variables to make circumscribed discoveries, typically …

Methodological standards for the development and evaluation of clinical prediction rules: a review of the literature

LE Cowley, DM Farewell, S Maguire… - Diagnostic and prognostic …, 2019 - Springer
Clinical prediction rules (CPRs) that predict the absolute risk of a clinical condition or future
outcome for individual patients are abundant in the medical literature; however, systematic …