The time-varying reproduction number (Rt) is an important measure of transmissibility during
outbreaks. Estimating whether and how rapidly an outbreak is growing (Rt> 1) or declining …

As COVID‐19 drags on and new vaccines promise widespread immunity, the world's
attention has turned to predicting how the present pandemic will end. How do societies …

Following the apparent final case in an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak, the decision to
declare the outbreak over must balance societal benefits of relaxing interventions against …

Important policy questions during infections disease outbreaks include: i) How effective are
particular interventions?; ii) When can resource-intensive interventions be removed? We …

Mathematical models are established tools to assist in outbreak response. They help
characterise complex patterns in disease spread, simulate control options to assist public …

New Zealand responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with a combination of border
restrictions and an Alert Level (AL) system that included strict stay-at-home orders. These …

A key challenge for public health policymakers is determining when an infectious disease
outbreak has finished. Following a period without cases, an estimate of the probability that …

Real-time estimation of the reproduction number has become the focus of modelling groups
around the world as the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic unfolds. One of the most widely adopted …

Several countries have come close to eliminating leprosy, but leprosy cases continue to be
detected at low levels. Due to the long, highly variable delay from infection to detection, the …

Objectives A hospital-related cluster of 22 cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
occurred in Taiwan in January–February 2021. Rigorous control measures were introduced …