Forecasting the term structure of crude oil futures prices with neural networks

J Baruník, B Malinska - Applied energy, 2016 - Elsevier
The paper contributes to the limited literature modelling the term structure of crude oil
markets. We explain the term structure of crude oil prices using the dynamic Nelson–Siegel …

Forecasting realized volatility: HAR against Principal Components Combining, neural networks and GARCH

DI Vortelinos - Research in international business and finance, 2017 - Elsevier
This paper examines whether nonlinear models, like Principal Components Combining,
neural networks and GARCH are more accurate on realized volatility forecasting than the …

[HTML][HTML] Short and long-term volatility transmission from oil to agricultural commodities–The robust quantile regression approach

D Živkov, S Manić, J Đurašković - Borsa Istanbul Review, 2020 - Elsevier
This paper investigates permanent and transitory spillover effects from Brent oil futures to
four agricultural futures–corn, wheat, soybean and canola. We construct permanent and …

Oil price uncertainty and the relation to tanker shipping

PK Pouliasis, C Bentsos - International Journal of Finance & …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
This article investigates whether time variation in the returns' co‐movement of oil and Baltic
Dirty Tanker Index can be linked to oil market uncertainty. We measure uncertainty using a …

Shipping equity risk behavior and portfolio management

PK Pouliasis, NC Papapostolou, I Kyriakou… - … Research Part A: Policy …, 2018 - Elsevier
This paper investigates the dynamics of stock price volatility for different vessel-type
segments of the US, water transportation industry. We measure market exposure by a …

News media and attention spillover across energy markets: A powerful predictor of crude oil futures prices

O Cepni, DK Nguyen, A Sensoy - The Energy Journal, 2022 - journals.sagepub.com
We develop two news-based investor attention measures from the news trends function of
the Bloomberg terminal and investigate their predictive power for returns on crude oil futures …

Is the refining margin stationary?

J Población, G Serna - International Review of Economics & Finance, 2016 - Elsevier
It has traditionally been assumed that the refining margin is stationary given that it is a linear
combination of cointegrated time series, ie, crude oil and its main refining products (mainly …

The asymmetric spillover effect of the Markov switching mechanism from the futures market to the spot market

KL Chang, C Lee - International review of economics & finance, 2020 - Elsevier
This article develops a multichain Markov switching dynamic conditional correlation ARCH
model with idiosyncratic jump dynamics to investigate whether the state of the crude oil …

A novel risk management framework for natural gas markets

PK Pouliasis, ID Visvikis… - Journal of Futures …, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
This paper examines dynamic hedges in the natural gas futures markets for different
horizons and explores the gains from devising risk management strategies. Despite the …

On the Brazilian fuel pricing policy: a Gaussian factor model approach

FAL Aiube - Applied Economics, 2020 - Taylor & Francis
In this paper we investigate the oil spot price dynamics and volatility in Brazilian Reais (the
local currency). The current policy on price adjustments of refined products caused …