We show that the conditional distribution of forecasted GDP growth depends on financial
conditions in a panel of 11 advanced economies. Financial conditions have a larger effect …

This paper empirically evaluates the potentially nonlinear nexus between financial
indicators and the distribution of future GDP growth, using a rich set of macroeconomic and …

I uncover heterogeneous effects of macroprudential policy on GDP growth distribution by
bringing together the literature on the impact of macroprudential policy and recent …

Financial stability risks are difficult to quantify and hard to map to economic outcomes. But
for central banks with a financial stability mandate, the issue is crucial. For example, when …

This paper explores the foundations for the application of the empirical growth-at-risk (GaR)
approach to the assessment and design of macroprudential policies. It starts considering a …

Macroprudential policy yields important benefits in terms of preventing and mitigating
systemic risk, but it can also have an impact on economic growth, particularly on the left tail …

Timely monitoring GDP-at-risk and tracing economic downside risk sources can help
establish effective risk warning and prevention systems. This study constructs a probability …

We study how foreign financial developments influence the conditional distribution of
domestic GDP growth. We propose a method to account for foreign vulnerabilities using …

This paper looks at the implications for monetary policy of the widespread adoption of
artificial intelligence and machine learning, which is sometimes called the “fourth industrial …

I construct a new composite measure of systemic financial market stress for Canada.
Compared with existing measures, it better captures the 1990 housing market correction and …