Using machine learning to anticipate tipping points and extrapolate to post-tipping dynamics of non-stationary dynamical systems

D Patel, E Ott - Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear …, 2023 - pubs.aip.org
The ability of machine learning (ML) models to “extrapolate” to situations outside of the
range spanned by their training data is crucial for predicting the long-term behavior of non …

Using machine learning to predict statistical properties of non-stationary dynamical processes: System climate, regime transitions, and the effect of stochasticity

D Patel, D Canaday, M Girvan… - … Journal of Nonlinear …, 2021 - pubs.aip.org
We develop and test machine learning techniques for successfully using past state time
series data and knowledge of a time-dependent system parameter to predict the evolution of …

Early warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems

SV George, S Kachhara, G Ambika - Physica Scripta, 2023 - iopscience.iop.org
In this topical review, we present a brief overview of the different methods and measures to
detect the occurrence of critical transitions in complex systems. We start by introducing the …

Echo state network and classical statistical techniques for time series forecasting: A review

FC Cardoso, RA Berri, EN Borges, BL Dalmazo… - Knowledge-Based …, 2024 - Elsevier
Forecasting is an extensive field of study, which tries to avoid injuries, diseases, and
damages but also can help in energy production, finance investments, etc. Two mathematics …

[HTML][HTML] Seeing double with a multifunctional reservoir computer

A Flynn, VA Tsachouridis, A Amann - Chaos: An Interdisciplinary …, 2023 - pubs.aip.org
Multifunctional biological neural networks exploit multistability in order to perform multiple
tasks without changing any network properties. Enabling artificial neural networks (ANNs) to …

Tipping point forecasting in non-stationary dynamics on function spaces

M Liu-Schiaffini, CE Singer, N Kovachki… - arXiv preprint arXiv …, 2023 - arxiv.org
Tipping points are abrupt, drastic, and often irreversible changes in the evolution of non-
stationary and chaotic dynamical systems. For instance, increased greenhouse gas …

Extrapolating tipping points and simulating non-stationary dynamics of complex systems using efficient machine learning

D Köglmayr, C Räth - Scientific Reports, 2024 - nature.com
Abstract Model-free and data-driven prediction of tipping point transitions in nonlinear
dynamical systems is a challenging and outstanding task in complex systems science. We …

Reservoir computing with error correction: Long-term behaviors of stochastic dynamical systems

C Fang, Y Lu, T Gao, J Duan - Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 2023 - Elsevier
The prediction of stochastic dynamical systems and the capture of dynamical behaviors are
profound problems. In this article, we propose a data-driven framework combining Reservoir …

Constraints on parameter choices for successful time-series prediction with echo-state networks

L Storm, K Gustavsson, B Mehlig - Machine Learning: Science …, 2022 - iopscience.iop.org
Echo-state networks are simple models of discrete dynamical systems driven by a time
series. By selecting network parameters such that the dynamics of the network is contractive …

Time-series-analysis-based detection of critical transitions in real-world non-autonomous systems

K Lehnertz - Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear …, 2024 - pubs.aip.org
Real-world non-autonomous systems are open, out-of-equilibrium systems that evolve in
and are driven by temporally varying environments. Such systems can show multiple …