Meta-analysis of the effect of natural frequencies on Bayesian reasoning.
M McDowell, P Jacobs - Psychological bulletin, 2017 - psycnet.apa.org
The natural frequency facilitation effect describes the finding that people are better able to
solve descriptive Bayesian inference tasks when represented as joint frequencies obtained …
solve descriptive Bayesian inference tasks when represented as joint frequencies obtained …
Applied decision making with fast-and-frugal heuristics
Highlights•Fast-and-frugal heuristics are useful in situations of uncertainty, while
optimization is designed for situations or risk.•The study of the adaptive toolbox is …
optimization is designed for situations or risk.•The study of the adaptive toolbox is …
Natural frequencies improve Bayesian reasoning in simple and complex inference tasks
U Hoffrage, S Krauss, L Martignon… - Frontiers in …, 2015 - frontiersin.org
Representing statistical information in terms of natural frequencies rather than probabilities
improves performance in Bayesian inference tasks. This beneficial effect of natural …
improves performance in Bayesian inference tasks. This beneficial effect of natural …
How to train novices in Bayesian reasoning
Bayesian Reasoning is both a fundamental idea of probability and a key model in applied
sciences for evaluating situations of uncertainty. Bayesian Reasoning may be defined as the …
sciences for evaluating situations of uncertainty. Bayesian Reasoning may be defined as the …
Why can only 24% solve Bayesian reasoning problems in natural frequencies: Frequency phobia in spite of probability blindness
For more than 20 years, research has proven the beneficial effect of natural frequencies
when it comes to solving Bayesian reasoning tasks (Gigerenzer and Hoffrage,). In a recent …
when it comes to solving Bayesian reasoning tasks (Gigerenzer and Hoffrage,). In a recent …
Different visualizations cause different strategies when dealing with Bayesian situations
People often struggle with Bayesian reasoning. However, previous research showed that
people's performance (and rationality) can be supported by the way the statistical …
people's performance (and rationality) can be supported by the way the statistical …
The impact of visualizing nested sets. An empirical study on tree diagrams and unit squares
K Böcherer-Linder, A Eichler - Frontiers in psychology, 2017 - frontiersin.org
It is an ongoing debate, what properties of visualizations increase people's performance
when solving Bayesian reasoning tasks. In the discussion of the properties of two …
when solving Bayesian reasoning tasks. In the discussion of the properties of two …
How to improve performance in Bayesian inference tasks: a comparison of five visualizations
K Böcherer-Linder, A Eichler - Frontiers in psychology, 2019 - frontiersin.org
Bayes' formula is a fundamental statistical method for inference judgments in uncertain
situations used by both laymen and professionals. However, since people often fail in …
situations used by both laymen and professionals. However, since people often fail in …
Covariational reasoning in Bayesian situations
T Büchter, A Eichler, K Böcherer-Linder… - Educational Studies in …, 2024 - Springer
Previous studies on Bayesian situations, in which probabilistic information is used to update
the probability of a hypothesis, have often focused on the calculation of a posterior …
the probability of a hypothesis, have often focused on the calculation of a posterior …
Visual aids improve diagnostic inferences and metacognitive judgment calibration
R Garcia-Retamero, ET Cokely, U Hoffrage - Frontiers in Psychology, 2015 - frontiersin.org
Visual aids can improve comprehension of risks associated with medical treatments,
screenings, and lifestyles. Do visual aids also help decision makers accurately assess their …
screenings, and lifestyles. Do visual aids also help decision makers accurately assess their …