Near-term climate change: projections and predictability
This chapter assesses the scientific literature describing expectations for near-term climate
(present through mid-century). Unless otherwise stated," near-term" change and the …
(present through mid-century). Unless otherwise stated," near-term" change and the …
Ensemble forecasting
M Leutbecher, TN Palmer - Journal of computational physics, 2008 - Elsevier
Numerical weather prediction models as well as the atmosphere itself can be viewed as
nonlinear dynamical systems in which the evolution depends sensitively on the initial …
nonlinear dynamical systems in which the evolution depends sensitively on the initial …
Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction
FJ Doblas-Reyes, I Andreu-Burillo, Y Chikamoto… - Nature …, 2013 - nature.com
Climate models are seen by many to be unverifiable. However, near-term climate
predictions up to 10 years into the future carried out recently with these models can be …
predictions up to 10 years into the future carried out recently with these models can be …
[HTML][HTML] A spectral stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme and its impact on flow-dependent predictability in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
J Berner, GJ Shutts, M Leutbecher… - Journal of the …, 2009 - journals.ametsoc.org
Berner, J., FJ Doblas-Reyes, TN Palmer, G. Shutts, and A. Weisheimer, 2008: Impact of a
quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and …
quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and …
[HTML][HTML] Why should ensemble spread match the RMSE of the ensemble mean?
When evaluating the reliability of an ensemble prediction system, it is common to compare
the root-mean-square error of the ensemble mean to the average ensemble spread. While …
the root-mean-square error of the ensemble mean to the average ensemble spread. While …
Flash flood forecasting: What are the limits of predictability?
CG Collier - Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological …, 2007 - Wiley Online Library
Flash floods may occur suddenly and be accompanied by other hazards such as landslides,
mud flows, damage to infrastructure and even death. In the UK such events are …
mud flows, damage to infrastructure and even death. In the UK such events are …
Ensemble forecasting: A foray of dynamics into the realm of statistics
Uncertain quantities are often described through statistical samples. Can samples for
numerical weather forecasts be generated dynamically? At a great expense, they can. With …
numerical weather forecasts be generated dynamically? At a great expense, they can. With …
ACCESS-S1 The new Bureau of Meteorology multi-week to seasonal prediction system
ACCESS-S1 will be the next version of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's seasonal
prediction system, due to become operational in early 2018. The multiweek and seasonal …
prediction system, due to become operational in early 2018. The multiweek and seasonal …
Improving intraseasonal prediction with a new ensemble generation strategy
Abstract The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has recently enhanced its capability to make
coupled model forecasts of intraseasonal climate variations. The Predictive Ocean …
coupled model forecasts of intraseasonal climate variations. The Predictive Ocean …
FuXi-ENS: A machine learning model for medium-range ensemble weather forecasting
Ensemble forecasting is crucial for improving weather predictions, especially for forecasts of
extreme events. Constructing an ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on conventional …
extreme events. Constructing an ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on conventional …