Transitional localized turbulence in shear flows is known to either decay to an absorbing
laminar state or to proliferate via splitting. The average passage times from one state to the …

We introduce and compare computational techniques for sharp extreme event probability
estimates in stochastic differential equations with small additive Gaussian noise. In …

Sharp large deviation estimates for stochastic differential equations with small noise, based
on minimizing the Freidlin–Wentzell action functional under appropriate boundary …

We propose a method for the accurate estimation of rare event or failure probabilities for
expensive-to-evaluate numerical models in high dimensions. The proposed approach …

Short-time large deviations of the spatially averaged height of a Kardar–Parisi–Zhang interface
on a ring - IOPscience This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site you agree to our …

We consider fluid flows, governed by the Navier-Stokes equations, subject to a steady
symmetry-breaking bifurcation and forced by a weak noise acting on a slow timescale. By …

We discuss the role of particular velocity field configurations–instantons, for short–which are
supposed to dominate the flow during the occurrence of extreme turbulent circulation events …

Using the optimal fluctuation method, we evaluate the short-time probability distribution $ P
(\bar {H}, L, t= T) $ of the spatially averaged height $\bar {H}=(1/L)\int_0^ L h (x, t= T)\, dx $ of …

Predicting the occurrence of rare and extreme events in complex systems is a fundamental
problem in non-equilibrium physics. These events can have huge impacts on human …

The advection and mixing of a scalar quantity by fluid flow is an important problem in
engineering and natural sciences. The statistics of the passive scalar exhibit complex …