The dynamic causal effect of an intervention on an outcome is of paramount interest to
applied macro-and microeconomics research. However, this question has been generally …

The literature on the effectiveness of macroprudential policy tools is still in its infancy and
has so far provided only limited guidance for policy decisions. In recent years, however …

In this chapter, we present econometric and statistical methods for analyzing randomized
experiments. For basic experiments, we stress randomization-based inference as opposed …

This is the first paper in a series of two that synthesizes, compares, and extends methods for
causal inference with longitudinal panel data in a structural equation modeling (SEM) …

We provide evidence that democracy has a positive effect on GDP per capita. Our dynamic
panel strategy controls for country fixed effects and the rich dynamics of GDP, which …

Abstract After the Global Financial Crisis, a controversial rush to fiscal austerity followed in
many countries. Yet research on the effects of austerity on macroeconomic aggregates was …

Propensity score matching estimators (Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983)) are widely used in
evaluation research to estimate average treatment effects. In this article, we derive the large …

Are capital controls and macroprudential measures related to international exposures
successful in achieving their objectives? Assessing their effectiveness is complicated by …

We develop flexible semiparametric time series methods for the estimation of the causal
effect of monetary policy on macroeconomic aggregates. Our estimator captures the average …

We propose a new source of cross-sectional variation that may identify causal impacts of
government spending on the economy. We use the fact that a large number of federal …