Abstract The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on autoregressive models produces
estimates of the output gap that are strongly at odds with widely held beliefs about transitory …

This paper analyzes business cycle spillovers and synchronization within groups of old and
new European Union countries. Firstly, we show that business cycle spillovers are very …

Abstract Since the Great Recession in 2007–2009, US real GDP has failed to return to its
previously projected path, a phenomenon widely associated with secular stagnation. We …

We relax the assumption that recessions are all alike and propose a new model of output
growth that allows for recession-specific recoveries. Output growth is modeled as the …

Time-varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility are routinely used for structural
analysis and forecasting in settings involving a few endogenous variables. Applying these …

As useful barometers of the macroeconomy, output and unemployment dynamics are
relevant for markets, policymakers and the average economic agent. This paper relaxes the …

An updated version of our Markov-switching model of US real GDP suggests the COVID-19
recession was more U-shaped than L-shaped. As with linear time series models, it is …

Despite a low unemployment rate, wage growth in the US was negligible during the 2013–
2015 period. Conventional linear models of the relationship between wages and …

Asymmetries in unemployment dynamics have been observed in the time series of a number
of countries, including the United States. This paper studies asymmetries in unemployment …

Measuring output gaps and assessing business cycle synchronization across countries is an
especially important topic within an economic union. However, different empirical models …