We explore the hypothesis that fluctuations in commodity prices are an important driver of
business cycles in small emerging market economies (EMEs). First, we document that …

Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for
explaining US recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price …

From late 2008 to 2014, oil and equity returns were more positively correlated than in other
periods. In addition, we show that both oil and equity returns became more responsive to …

We investigate whether the response of the macro-economy to oil price shocks undergoes
episodic changes. Employing a regime-switching vector autoregressive model we identify …

This article provides a framework to estimate the potential effects and benefits of the
provision of market information in storable commodity markets. This framework is applied to …

We examine how industry returns react to various oil shocks developed in Baumeister and
Hamilton (2019) and find that oil supply shocks matter as much, if not more, as oil demand …

This paper reevaluates the common characterization of commodity-exporting developing
economies as having excessively procyclical fiscal policy. We develop a new measure of …

This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on an
empirical model embedding transitory and permanent shocks. We find evidence of …

When interest rates are higher in one's home country than they are abroad, standard
arbitrage arguments suggest this signals that the home currency will depreciate in the future …

Commodity-exporting developing economies are often characterized as having needlessly
procyclical fiscal policy: increasing government expenditure when commodity prices are …