[HTML][HTML] Reducing risks in megaprojects: the potential of reference class forecasting

R Baerenbold - Project Leadership and Society, 2023 - Elsevier
Large infrastructure projects often suffer from cost and schedule overruns, mainly due to
optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. Reference class forecasting (RCF) offers a …

Practical application of reference class forecasting for cost and time estimations: Identifying the properties of similarity

T Servranckx, M Vanhoucke, T Aouam - European Journal of Operational …, 2021 - Elsevier
Many project managers underestimate that todays projects are subject to various risks,
which might lead to enormous cost overruns and project delays. In the domain of project …

[HTML][HTML] An ex-ante method to verify commercial US nuclear power plant decommissioning cost estimates

R Lordan-Perret, R Bärenbold, H Weigt, R Rosner - Energy Economics, 2023 - Elsevier
There are billions of dollars at stake in the US nuclear power plant decommissioning market.
Approximately 92 nuclear power plants are still operating but will come offline and need to …

[PDF][PDF] Major project risk management: Reconciling complexity during delivery with the inside view in planning

P Chapman, C Quang - Engineering …, 2021 - openjournals.library.sydney.edu.au
Recent research on the origins of risk during the planning and delivery of major projects
broadly addresses two root causes:(i) complexity at the planning phase and also during …

Reference Class Forecasting

M Vanhoucke - The Illusion of Control: Project Data, Computer …, 2023 - Springer
This chapter summarises the results of three studies using the reference class forecasting
technique on empirical project data. Each project control method from the previous chapters …