Central banks' forecasts are important monetary policy inputs and tools for central bank
communication. We survey the literature on forecasting at the Federal Reserve, European …

Abstract The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve regularly
publishes participants' qualitative assessments of forecast uncertainty, expressed relative to …

We construct a 23-country panel data set to consider the effect of central bank projections
and forward guidance on private-sector forecasts. Despite the strong arguments in the …

I provide a unifying perspective on forecast evaluation, characterizing accurate forecasts of
all types, from simple point to complete probabilistic forecasts, in terms of two fundamental …

The interest rate assumptions for macroeconomic forecasts differ among central banks.
Common approaches are given by the assumptions that interest rates remain constant over …

Systematically biased forecasts are typically interpreted as evidence of forecasters'
irrationality and/or asymmetric loss. In this paper we propose an alternative explanation …

We analysed interest rate forecasts from Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia,
Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. We assessed 532 …

Recent research has found that macroeconomic survey forecasts of uncertainty exhibit
several deficiencies, such as horizon-dependent biases and lower levels of accuracy than …

Using data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters and
ECB/Eurosystem staff projections, we analyze the role of ex-ante conditioning variables for …

I study the forecast updating behavior of Federal Open Market Committee members to
assess how individual views on appropriate monetary policy translate into disagreement …