Data for OECD countries document: 1. imports and exports are about three times as volatile
as GDP; 2. imports and exports are pro-cyclical, and positively correlated with each other; 3 …

This article provides a general framework to study the role of production networks in
international GDP comovement. We first derive an additive decomposition of bilateral GDP …

In the immediate wake of the Great Recession we didn't see the disinflation that most models
predicted and, subsequently, we didn't see the inflation they predicted. We show that these …

We propose a novel identification scheme for a nontechnology business cycle shock, which
we label “sentiment”. This is a shock orthogonal to identified surprise and news TFP shocks …

We evaluate manufacturing firms' responses to changes in the real exchange rate (RER)
using detailed firm-level data for a large set of countries for the period 2001-2010. We …

This paper discusses the problems associated with using information about the signs of
certain magnitudes as a basis for drawing structural conclusions in vector autoregressions …

Inflation in the euro area has been falling since mid-2013, turned negative at the end of
2014 and remained below target thereafter. This paper employs a Bayesian VAR to quantify …

Terms of trade are an inaccurate empirical proxy for how fluctuations in international prices
affect the economy. To capture the relevance of terms of trade fluctuations for the domestic …

We estimate an open‐economy vector autoregressive (VAR) model to study the effect of
capital‐inflow shocks on the US housing market. We look at different external shocks that …

In the immediate wake of the Great Recession we didn't see the disinflation that most models
predicted and, subsequently, we didn't see the inflation they predicted. We show that these …